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Igihe cyo kumanuka ntikiragera: Icyerekezo cy’izamuka ry’ibiciro rikomeje kugora benshi mu masoko

Yanditswe na Rabbi Malo Umucunguzi
Kuya 28 Ugushyingo 2022 saa 07:18
Yasuwe :

Ibiciro ku isoko bikomeje kuzamuka uko bwije n’uko bukeye, ndetse inzobere zigaragaraza ko impamvu zituma bizamuka ntaho zirajya. Nyamara ubuzima bwo bugomba gukomeza, ku buryo abantu bagomba kumenya uko babana n’izi mpinduka.

Nko mu Ukwakira 2022, ibiciro ku isoko mu mijyi byazamutseho 20,1%, aho nk’ibiciro by’ibiribwa n’ibinyobwa bidasembuye byazamutseho 39,7%.

Iteganyamibare ryerekana ko muri uyu mwaka, u Rwanda ruzagira impuzandengo y’izamuka ry’ibiciro ya 13,2%.

Mu magambo make, ikintu cyagurwaga 100 Frw mu mwaka ushize, uyu mwaka uzarangira kigura hejuru ya 113 Frw, nubwo hari ibizaba byarazamutse cyane wenda bikikuba kabiri, ibindi ntibizamuke.

Iri zamuka ryarenze igipimo fatizo cya 5% u Rwanda rwihaye, n’urubibi ntarengwa rwa 8% nk’igipimo gishobora kwihanganirwa mu izamuka ry’ibiciro ku mwaka.

Urebye nko mu mahanga, mu bihugu bikoresha ifaranga rya Euro ibiciro byazamutse 10,7% mu Ukwakira, mu gihe muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika byazamutse kuri 8,2%, izamuka rikabije ryaherukaga mu 1982.

Muri Turikiya ho byararenze kuko mu Ukwakira izamuka ry’ibiciro ryageze kuri 85,5% ku ijana, umubare waherukaga mu myaka 25 ishize.

Mu kiganiro cyihariye na Prof Kasai Ndahiriwe uyobora Ishami rishinzwe Politiki y’Ifaranga muri Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu, BNR, yagarutse ku byihishe inyuma y’ibi bibazo, n’uko abantu bakwiye kubyitwaramo.

IGIHE: BNR iherutse kuzamura inyungu fatizo yayo iyigeze kuri 6.5%. Icyo gihe ni iki yabonaga mu mibare, by’umwihariko ibiciro ku masoko?

Prof Kasai: Nk’uko mubizi, ndake nta muntu utazi ko ibiciro ku isoko byazamutse cyane. Impamvu ituma bizamuka cyane ni impamvu idaturuka hano mu Rwanda, nubwo hari na bimwe bijyanye n’uko isoko ry’u Rwanda rimeze cyane cyane ubuhinzi butagenze neza, wenda ari nabyo mperaho.

Nabyo bifite icyo byongeraho muri uko kuzamuka kw’ibiciro ku masoko, kuko iyo urebye uko ubuhinzi bwageze muri uyu mwaka wa 2022 kuva ugitangira, ukagereranya wenda n’umwaka wawubanjirije, usanga ubuhinzi butaragenze neza.

Ariko n’iyo ubirebye, umusaruro tuvuga wa 2022 akenshi haba harimo ibyo mu gihembwe cy’ihinga A biba byarahinzwe mu mwaka wawubanjirije.

Ikirere rero ntabwo cyagenze neza mu mwaka wa 2021 ujya kurangira, ariko ntabwo ingaruka zahise zigaragara muri uwo mwaka, kuko icyo gihe ibyajyaga ku masoko ni ibyari byarahinzwe mbere, noneho ingaruka zitangira kugaragara muri uyu mwaka.

Ariko iyo ntabwo ari yo mpamvu nyamukuru.

Impamvu nyamukuru y’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko ituruka ku rwego mpuzamahanga, aho ibiciro byazamutse cyane kandi muzi ko u Rwanda ari igihugu gihahirana n’ibindi, ibyo bigatuma uko ibiciro bizamuka mu mahanga, ari nako bizamuka mu Rwanda.

Ku rwego mpuzamahanga ho hari impamvu ebyiri nyamukuru zatumye bizamuka nubwo atari zo zonyine.

Hari impamvu yo kuba twari tuvuye mu cyorezo cya COVID, ibihugu byose ku rwego rw’isi byafashije ubukungu kuzanzamuka. Iyo ubukungu rero buzanzamutse ku kigero nk’icyo byazanzamutseho, akenshi biba byitezwe ko abantu bakenera ibicuruzwa byaba ibifatika cyangwa se serivisi, babikenera cyane kurusha uko babikeneraga kuko ubukungu buba buri kuzahuka.

Ni ukuvuga ngo ubushobozi bw’abaguzi bwariyongereye ku rwego rw’isi kuko twari turi kuva mubihe bibi bya COVID-19. Iyo mpamvu yagaragaraga na mbere y’uko tubona impamvu ya kabiri, y’intambara yo muri Ukraine.

Ingaruka zihariye z’iyi ntambara zahise zigaragara mu zihe nzego?

Bigitangira byagaragara ko wenda ari ibintu bishobora kurangira vuba, hakaba hafatwa ingamba zishobora gutuma intambara idakomeza cyangwa ikanarangira bijyanye n’uburyo Ukraine wenda yashoboye kwitabara vuba cyangwa igafashwa n’amahanga, ariko si ko byagenze.

Intambara yaratinze, noneho n’ibihao bijyaye n‘iyo ntambara nabyo byagize icyo bihungabanya ku bukungu.

Ibyahungabanye biturutse kuri iyo ntambara yo muri Ukraine harimo ibikomoka kuri peteroli, ibiciro byarazamutse cyane, cyane cyane ko n’iyo umuntu yaba adafite imodoka cyangwa moto ikenera lisansi, ariko aba ayitega, iyo byazamutse arabimenya.

Ibyo rero byarazamutse ku rwego rw’isi, kandi murabizi ko mu Rwanda ntabwo dufite peteroli, ni iyo tuvaba hanze, ubwo iza iduhenze, noneho n’ibintu byose bijyanye n’ubwikorezi, ari ubw’abantu cyangwa ibicuruzwa, nabwo buhita buhenda.

Ibindi ni ibiribwa, biriya bihugu bya Ukraine n’u Burusiya bigira ibiribwa cyane, harimo ingano, ibinyampeke bitadukaye, ariko cyane cyane ingano.

Kuba rero byaragize ikibazo cy’intambara hakazaho n’ibihano byafatiwe u Burusiya, ibyo byose byagize uruhare ku biribwa, kandi muzi uruhare ibinyampeke bigira ku masoko.

Ibyo nabyo byatumye ibiciro by’ibiribwa bizamuka cyane.

Kuzamura inyungu fatizo ya BNR bizana ikihe gisubizo?

Ubusanzwe iyo ibiciro bizamuka biturutse ku bushobozi bw’abaguzi bwiyogereye, kuzamura inyungu fatizo bifasha kugabanya umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro kuko biba no gukoma mu nkokora abantu gukomeza kugana amasoko, bagura, ahubwo Banki Nkuru ikaba ibakangurira kuzigamira ejo hazaza.

Iyo ni yo mpamvu yabanje ku rwego rw’isi. Ariko hikubiseho kiriya cy’u Burusiya, cyo kiza gifite indi mpamvu [y’izamuka ry’ibiciro] rituruka ku bikenerwa ku isoko byabaye bikeya.

Ni ho abantu bibaza bati ese niba ibintu byabaye bike, izamurwa ry’inyungu fatizo rirabyongera? Oya, ntabwo ribyongera, ahubwo ni uko n’iyo byabaye bike, hari ingaruka z’izamuka ry’ibiciro zituruka ku bindi byazamutse.

Ikibikemura ni ukuzamuka kw’inyungu fatizo. Iyo yazamutse ntabwo bikomeza kuba uruhererekane, ibyazamutse biba ibyo gusa.

Ni nko kubuza ngo niba peteroli yazamutse, ejo wumve n’ishati yazamutse idafite aho ihuriye na peteroli, kuko gusa ari nk’imbyino igezweho.

Bigabanya umuvuduko wo gukenera kugana amasoko, guhaha cyane, abantu bagahaha ibyo babona ari iby’ingenzi.

Iyo muzamuye inyungu fatizo, ni iki gihita kiba mu buryo amafaraga azenguruka mu mabanki?

Ubundi hari icyo twita imicungire y’amafaranga ku rwego rw’igihugu umunsi ku wundi (open market operations), aho Banki nkuru y’igihugu igenda ireba uko amafaranga angana.

Ubundi amabanki aba afite amafaranga, akayaha abayagana, ariko hari igihe usanga isigaranye umurengera. Uwo akenshi ushobora gutera izamuka ry’ibiciro ridasanzwe.

Iyo banki ibona hari uwo murengera, icyo gihe Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu irawubabikira, ikabungukira kuri iriya nyungu fatizo ya BNR.

Noneho iyo ari make, iyo banki zakiriye abazigana bakeneye inguzanyo, amafaranga akababana make, BNR irayongera.

Iba ibibona mu mibare yayo ya buri munsi, ibyo bikorwa buri munsi kuva saa tatu kugeza saa yine, haba akanama gashinzwe kureba ngo amafaraga ahari angana ate, akenewe angana ate.

Iyo ari make BNR ishobora gufata umwanzuro wo guha amafaranga amabanki kuri iyo nyungu, ubu ni 6.5%. Iyo ari menshi nabwo BNR iravuga iti reka tuyababikire kuri 6.5%, urumva ko birangana, byaba ari ukuyabika cyangwa kuyabanguriza ku gihe gito - aba ari igihe kitarenze iminsi irindwi.

Iyo nyungu ibarwa ku mwaka, ariko bakayamarana iminsi irindwi. Ubwo barabibara ngo ni nk’angahe banki iri bwungukire BNR cyangwa BNR iri bwungukire banki, ariko inyungu ni imwe, urumva ko nta bucuruzi burimo, ni ukugira ngo habungwabungwe uko amafaranga ahagaze ku isoko.

Ni izihe ngaruka bihita bigira ku buryo bantu babona amafaranga?

Iyo nka banki ifite amafaraga arenze ayo iri bukenere uwo munsi, [banki] zivuganye zishobora kugirana umumaro, ifite menshi iba ibonye uwo iyaguriza uri buyihe inyungu, n’ifite make iba ibonye aho iyafata ku nyungu idahenze cyane, kugira ngo abakeneye amafaranga ize gushobora uyabaha nk’uko yabyiyemeje cyangwa ifite izo nshingano.

Ubwo rero iyo nyungu bahererekanyaho amafaranga hagati yabo nayo ihita izamuka.

Ubwo niba yari kuri 6.54%, ubwo inyungu fatizo yageze kuri 6.5%, ni ukuvuga iyo inyungu hagati y’amabanki nayo ihita yiyongera, kuko baravuga ngo ntabwo nayaguhera nk’uko BNR iyambikira, aho kuyaha undi yayashyira muri BNR.

Ariko kugira ngo ubwo bucuruzi hagati y’amabanki bushoboke, kandi ni ibintu byiza ku isoko ry’imari, icyo gihe nabo igiciro kirazamutse, ushobora gusanga kivuye kuri 6.5% noneho kikaba 6.7% cyangwa 6.8%, ariko birazamuka.

Icyo gihe birumvikana ko n’amafaranga amabanki agurizanya hagati yayo na yo aba yahenze, ni nako nawe ugana banki ujya kubitsa bakuzamurira inyungu, ku buryo haba habayeho uburyo bufasha abantu kugira ngo babitse kurusha kwiguriza.

Kwiguriza, wiguriza ari uko wize umushinga neza, ariko amafaranga yo gupfa gukoresha, niba wajyaga gufata ideni ryo gukoresha isabukuru, ndakeka muri iki gihe ubona ko ibintu bitameze neza, ushobora kutarifata [kuko riba ritangirwa ku nyungu iri hejuru].

Ariko niba wafataga ideni ryo kubaka inzu yawe utarayuzuza, byo wabireka. Ni byo n’ubundi biba bikenewe, kumva ko ukora ibiri ngombwa cyane, bifite umumaro ubu no mu gihe kizaza, ntuhahe ibintu kwinezeza uwo mwanya, nk’ibyo urabigabanya.

BNR yasubije kuri 5% ubwizigame butegetswe ku mafaranga abitswe na banki z’ubucuruzi guhera ku wa 1 Mutarama 2023, buvuye kuri 4% yashyizweho mu 2020 kubera COVID-19. Mwashingiye ku ki?

Kiriya kigero cy’ubwizigame bw’amabanki y’ubucuruzi muri BNR n’ubundi cyari gisanzwe kuri 5% nk’ikigero kibereye ubukungu bw’u Rwanda n’isoko ry’imari. Ariko icyorezo cya Covid kigeze mu Rwanda muri Werurwe 2020, Banki Nkuru yafashe icyemezo cyo kugabanya ucyo kigero cy’ubwizigame.

Ibintu byari bikomeye, bigararagara ko muri icyo gihe ubwizigame butari bwiyongere, ahubwo buri bugabayuke, abantu bari bukenere amafaranga batinjiza andi. BNR ifata icyemezo cyo kuvuga ngo ubwizigame bw’amabanki bushobora kugabanyuka.

Nk’uko nawe kumufuka wawe, niba hari utwo wari warazigamye watangiye kudukoraho, ukavuga uti nzongera kuzigama ibintu byongeye kumera neza, kuko byari bigoye ko umuntu cyangwa banki ifata ingamba zo kuzigama, ahubwo ni igihe cyo kureba utwo ufite ukadufata neza.

Nyuma ya covid rero, ibintu byaje gusubira mu buryo, ubukungu bwarazamutse kubera ingamba zaba iza BNR, zaba iza leta muri rusange, izo zose zagiye zikomatanyiriza hamwe kugira ngo ubukungu buzamuke.

Bumaze kuzahuka rero, ikigero cy’amafaranga cyarongeye gisubira ku kigero cya mbere. Amafaraga yariyongereye noneho amabanki ahubwo atangira kuza kubitsa muri BNR.

Mu gihe mu gihe cya COVID kugeza mu gice cya mbere cya 2021 amafaranga yababanaga make, ubungubu amafaranga baza kuyabitsa muri BNR.

Icyo rero ni ikimenyetso ko amafaranga amaze gusubira ku kigero cyayo, noneho BNR igasaba ko ayo mafaranga yamaze kubitsa, baza kubitsa muri BNR ntawe ubibabwiye, ahubwo BNR kavuga iti noneho igihe kirageze cyo kongera gusubiza ubwo bwizigame ku gipimo kinogeye ubukungu bw’u Rwanda nk’uko byari bimeze mbere ya COVID.

Icyo ni kimwe. Icya kabiri rero harimo n’uko bifasha nabyo mu gutuma izamuka ry’ibiciro ridakomeza kwiyongera cyane, kuko niba mu mabanki amafaranga bari kuyaha abayagana, akaza akaba muri BNR, ubu ni igihe cyo kwizigama. Iyo bizigamye rero bigabanya umuvuduko w’ibiciro.

Kuko uko tugana amasoko turi beshi, bizamura ibiciro. Ariko uko tuzigama turi benshi, nabyo bishobora kugabanya ibiciro.

Iriya 5% ubwo ibarwa ku yahe mafaranga?

Ni 5% y’amafaranga abagana amabanki babitsa. Dufate niba mu Rwanda, abanyarwanda n’abatari abanyarwanda babitsa mu mabanki yo mu Rwanda miliyoni 100 Frw, ubwo miliyoni 5 Frw bagomba kuyazigama, banki ntiziyakoreshe yose uko yakabaye.

Ubwo bagombaga kubitsa miliyoni 4 Frw, ariko ubu bazajya bazigama miliyoni 5 Frw muri za miliyoni 100 Frw, ubwo ayo bagomba kuyabika ntibayakoreshe mu bikorwa bya buri munsi. Ubwo ni bwo bwizigame.

Iteganyamibare ry’izamuka ry’ibiciri ritanga icyizere ku bihe biri imbere?

Ufashe wenda kuri uyu mwaka ho nta kizahinduka cyane kuko usa n’aho waragiye, ubu tugiye kwinjira mu kwezi kwa cumi na kabiri, urumva ko umwaka uba warangiye.

Ubu turimo kubona ko tuzawusoza ibiciro bikiri hejuru n’izamuka ry’ibiciro rikiri ku muvuduko uri hafi kugana n’uwo ubona ubungubu.

Iyo urebye rero izamuka ry’ibiciro, turabona impuzadengo y’umwaka, izamuka ry’ibiciro rizaba riri hejuru ya 13% ho gato, kuko iteganyamibare ritwereka 13.2%.

Mu ntangiriro z’umwaka utaha naho bizakomeza kuba hejuru, ni nako bigaragara no ku rwego rw’isi kandi duhahirana n’ibindi bihugu.

Aruko twabireba neza tukabona mu mwaka utaha umuvuduko w’izamuka ry’ibiciro umaze kugabanyuka, ku buryo duteganya ko izamuka ry’ibiciro rizaba rimaze gusubiza mu mbago BNR yifuza, itarenga 8%. Aho ni mu gice cya kabiri cy’umwaka utaha.

Iyo urebye ariko imihindagurikire y’ibihe ikomeje kuba ikibazo, intambara y’u Burusiya na Ukraine irakomeje, COVID mu Bushinwa… icyizere gishingira ku ki?

Ku bijyanye n’ubuhinzi ho ntabwo ari ikintu cyoroshye ngo umuntu avuge ngo wenda bizagenda bite, abanyarwanda bajya bavuga ngo umuntu uhinduka mu buryo butunguranye ngo ahinduka nk’ikirere.

Iteganyamibare twari dufite mu mwaka ushize, ibi bihe turimo twabitekerejeho, noneho bikagaragara ko ubuhinzi butari kugenda neza. Ari byo navugaga ko ibiciro bizakomeza kuba hejuru kuko ikirere uko kimeze ntabwo kizatuma haboneka umusaruro wifuzwa mu ntangiriro z’umwaka utaha.

Noneho icyo dushingiraho tubona ko bishobora gusubira mu mbago, icyizere umuntu yavuga ku rwego rw’isi kuko ari naho ikibazo gikomeye kiri, ni uko amabanki ku rwego rw’isi ahanini ay’ibihugu bikomeye, arimo kugenda afata ingamba zo gufunga umukandara, zo kugira ngo ibiciro bye gukomeza kuzamuka.

Nko muri Amerika bazamuye inyungu fatizo cyane ahubwo binatuma idolari rizamuka ugereranyije n’andi mafaranga y’inbidi bihugu.

Ibindi biuhugu nabyo birimo gufata ingamba nk’uko Amerika yabifashe ku muvuduko wo hejuru, ariko nk’igihugu gikomeye, ibyo nabyo bizagira ingaruka ku bukungu bw’isi.

N’ibihugu byo muri Burayi biri muri Eurozone nabyo biri kuzamura inyungi fatizo, n’ibindi bihugu bitandukanye, ni uuvuga bose baragenda bafata ingamba zituma ibiciro bidakomeza kuzamuka.

Nk’abacuruza peteroli bo mu minsi yashize bari bafashe ingamba zo kugabanya umusaruro byo kuvuga ngo ibiciro bya peteroli bishobora kuguma hejuru, ariko ingamba zirimo gufatwa ku rwego rw’isi, nibakomeza gusa no gufunga umukandara, bituma n’abakenera iyo peteroli baba bake.

Noneho bigatuma OPEC idakomeza gukata kuko ibona ko nubundi nikomeza gukata n’ubundi izagurisha bake cyane, hari aho bagera nubundi bakaba badashobora gukata.

Izamuka ry’ibiciro nk’iri nta ngaruka zagira ku bukungu?

Mu mwaka umwe ushobora kutabona ingaruka z’izamuka ry’ibiciro ku bukungu, ariko mu gihe kirambye, bitinze, nk’ibi by’umwaka umwe cyangwa ibiri ntabwo bigira ingaruka zirambye ku bukungu.

Igituma ubukungu bushobora gusubira inyuma ni uko baba bafashe ingamba zikaze zi kugira ngo bahangane n’izamukary’ibixciro kuko iyobiaze igihebgito ntabwo bibangamora ubukungu, ariko iyo itinze ibubagamira igihe kirekire.

Ingaruka zo gutindana izamuka ry’ibiciro ni mbi cyane kurusha ingaruka zo guhanhgana naryo mu gihe cya vuba bgasa n’aho bibaremereye, ariko mukazava aho habi mujya aheza vuba.

Ariko iyo bitababaye, izamuka ry’ibiiro rigakomeza rikaba hejuru, tekereza nko muri Turikiya aho izamuka ari 80%, rikomeje kuba guyto, mu myaka ibiri, itatu, ine, nta muntu wongera gushora imari, ubukungu rero buhita bumanuka.

Kuko umuntu ashora imari, icyo aguze uyu munsi agiye gushora oimari niba kiri kugura 100,000 Frw, mu mwaka utaha agasana bigiye kwikuba inshuro ebyiri, asanga asa n’uwahombye, akavuga ati nafashe ikintu ndashora, none ayo mvanyemo nta nubwo ashobora kugura cya kintu kuko cyamaze kwikuba inshuro ebyiri, biba urucantege rero ku bashoramari.

N umushoramari ku rwego rwe ndetse n’uwizigama, ntabwo waba uzoi ngo ejo ibiciro bizaba byikubye kabiri, ngo amafaranga uyabike, ahubwo uravuga ngo reka nyarye.

Icyo bank nkuru ziba zishinzwe ni ukugira ngo zisubizeho icyo cyizere, n’iyo byasa naho bigiye gusharira ho gato, imiti myinshi nubundi irasharira, ariko gatanga umusaruro.

Izi ngamba muri gufata ziri ku rwego rwo hasi, ruringanyiye, cyangwa ni urwo hejuru?

Ni ingamba ziringaniye. Iyo urebye mu Rwanda hazamo no gushyira mu gaciro, no kureba aho iri zamuka rituruka, rituruka hanze, ahubwo icyo mu Rwanda ni ukugira ngo ibiciro bye kwanduzanya, he kuba uruhererakane rw’izamuka ry’ibiciro.

Icyo gihe bituma BNR idafata ingamba zimeze nk’igihe izamuka ryari kuba riri guturuka hano mu gihugu. Iyo rituruka mu gihugu wenda ari nk’ubushobozi bw’abaturage bwiyongereye, yari gufata ingamba zikarishye.

Abantu bakwiye kwitwara bate mu bihe nk’ibi?

Icya mbere, ni ukwirinda kujya mu bijyanye no gukoresha amafaraga, amafaranga abantu bakoresha agomba kugabanyuka.

Ubundi ibintu umuntu akoreshaho amafaranga menshi yari akwiye kubigabanya, agasirigarana iby’ibanze. Ibintu by’igihe gito byose, ibijyanye n’ingendo umuntu ashobora kubihindura, uburyo abikoramo, akita cyane ku bintu bituma azigama.


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